Collector – June 2019 - 19

COVER

W

New

MENT

By Anne Rosso May

The accounts receivable management
industry may not be "recession-proof,"
but it is resilient. Here's how you
can prepare for the next recession-
whenever it arrives.

COLLECTOR 06.19

hen the economy tanks, there are some
industries that continue to thrive-or
at least stay in the black. The alcohol,
accounting and funeral services industries come
to mind. Accounts receivable management (ARM),
however, is not on that list-despite some of the
headlines we saw insisting otherwise during the
Great Recession.
We're currently in the second-longest economic
expansion in U.S. history-but the good times
probably won't last forever, and many experts say they
are starting to see signs that a recession is on its way.
Among them are rising levels of consumer debt and
the interest rate spread between short-term federal
funds and long-term U.S. bonds, which inverted twice
already in 2019. (Historically, an inverted yield curve
has been a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions.)
That said, opinions on when a downturn will arrive
vary. While S&P Global, a government ratings agency,
recently raised its probability of a 2019 U.S. recession
to 20-25 percent, Matt Komos, vice president of
research and consulting for TransUnion, believes we
won't see a significant downturn arrive this year.
"A lot of what we see in the economy helps drive
the consumer credit market, and recent trends in
unemployment, wages, inflation, GDP growth and
income have all helped bolster the consumer credit
marketplace," Komos said. "Based on what we saw in
2018 and what's projected for the next year or so from
an economic standpoint, I anticipate the consumer
credit market will continue to do well through 2019."
Michael Lamm, managing partner at Corporate
Advisory Solutions LLC, said that he sees more of
a looming correction than a recession, thanks to
conflicting economic trends: student loan and credit
card debt amounts are close to exceeding pre-Great
Recession levels, for instance, but jobs are holding
steady and the economy is growing.
"A lot of people assume this industry is recessionproof, when it's actually anything but that," Lamm
said. "What it is, though, is an indicator for a looming
recession. You'll start to see more and more placements
or defaults as we're going into a market correction.
When you look at the market now, you're starting to
see those cracks. The unknown at this point is what's
going to be the catalyst that's going to tip the market."

19



Collector – June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Collector – June 2019

President’s Page
Industry News
Best Practices
FYI
Collection Tips
Adapting to a New Environment
“Today agencies realize this is an opportunity to help the consumer.”
ACA International’s 2019 Convention & Expo
Close the Revolving Door
Calendar
Honor Roll
Education Spotlight
Ask the Experts: Small Talk
Growing into the Industry
Exploring STIR/SHAKEN
CFPB Releases Proposed Debt Collection Rule
Industry Advancement Program Helps Member Defeat FDCPA Claim in Ninth Circuit
ACA SearchPoint
Ad Index
Membership
Last Word
Collector – June 2019 - Cover1
Collector – June 2019 - Cover2
Collector – June 2019 - 1
Collector – June 2019 - 2
Collector – June 2019 - 3
Collector – June 2019 - Industry News
Collector – June 2019 - President’s Page
Collector – June 2019 - 6
Collector – June 2019 - 7
Collector – June 2019 - 8
Collector – June 2019 - 9
Collector – June 2019 - Best Practices
Collector – June 2019 - 11
Collector – June 2019 - FYI
Collector – June 2019 - 13
Collector – June 2019 - 14
Collector – June 2019 - 15
Collector – June 2019 - Collection Tips
Collector – June 2019 - 17
Collector – June 2019 - Adapting to a New Environment
Collector – June 2019 - 19
Collector – June 2019 - 20
Collector – June 2019 - 21
Collector – June 2019 - Close the Revolving Door
Collector – June 2019 - “Today agencies realize this is an opportunity to help the consumer.”
Collector – June 2019 - ACA International’s 2019 Convention & Expo
Collector – June 2019 - 25
Collector – June 2019 - 26
Collector – June 2019 - 27
Collector – June 2019 - 28
Collector – June 2019 - 29
Collector – June 2019 - 30
Collector – June 2019 - 31
Collector – June 2019 - 32
Collector – June 2019 - 33
Collector – June 2019 - Calendar
Collector – June 2019 - Honor Roll
Collector – June 2019 - Education Spotlight
Collector – June 2019 - 37
Collector – June 2019 - Ask the Experts: Small Talk
Collector – June 2019 - 39
Collector – June 2019 - Growing into the Industry
Collector – June 2019 - 41
Collector – June 2019 - Exploring STIR/SHAKEN
Collector – June 2019 - 43
Collector – June 2019 - CFPB Releases Proposed Debt Collection Rule
Collector – June 2019 - 45
Collector – June 2019 - Industry Advancement Program Helps Member Defeat FDCPA Claim in Ninth Circuit
Collector – June 2019 - 47
Collector – June 2019 - ACA SearchPoint
Collector – June 2019 - Ad Index
Collector – June 2019 - Membership
Collector – June 2019 - 51
Collector – June 2019 - Last Word
Collector – June 2019 - Cover3
Collector – June 2019 - Cover4
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